🛡️ From Ad Hominem to Dumpster Fire: A Tactical Field Guide for Leaders
Spot the Latin land-mines in your boardroom before your strategy goes kaboom.
☕ Prelude: espresso, ego, and error
It’s Monday. The croissants are stale, the coffee is lukewarm, and your CFO just tried to dodge a question by dropping ceteris paribus. Cute. Less cute? The invisible trip-wires in our thinking that turn bright strategies into flaming dumpster fires. Those traps come with Latin name-tags because the Romans loved cataloguing other people’s nonsense. Two millennia later the nameplates are still welded to PowerPoint decks. This romp blows the dust off ten greatest-hits fallacies, straps them to modern corporate belly-flops, and hands you a toolkit sharp enough to shave a balloon. Buckle up, some egos will be harmed.
🎯 Argumentum ad Hominem: attack the person, scorch the brand
In 2018 Elon Musk called a cave-rescue diver a “pedo guy.” Tesla’s shares fell 3.5 %, wiping almost US $2 billion in market cap overnight. (Time) When leaders swing at people instead of evidence, investors reach for the Sell button.
Reality-check mantra: play the ball, not the player. Redirect the fire to the spreadsheet, fast.
🎖️ Argumentum ad Verecundiam: star power, zero substance
Theranos wrapped its blood-testing myth in a board of four-star generals and former secretaries of state; none were clinical pathologists. It still vacuumed up US $700 million before the charade collapsed. (Wikipedia) Credentials only count when they match the claim.
Diagnostic: if the résumé were blank, would the data still stand?
🏛️ Argumentum ad Antiquitatem: the tyranny of “we’ve always…”
Kodak built the first digital camera in 1975, patented it, and buried the idea to protect film. (Smithsonian Magazine) Today the once-mighty giant is a licensing shell. Meanwhile corporate lifespans on the S&P 500 are forecast to shrink from 30-plus years in the 1970s to roughly 15-20 this decade. (Innosight) Tradition ages faster than ever.
Test: if we launched the company tomorrow, would we pick this process? If not, torch it.
⏱️ Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc: correlation in a fake moustache
A retailer cut digital-ad spend 15 % and profits ticked up 3 %. Finance declared “marketing is a cost centre.” Next quarter web traffic cratered 42 %. The uptick had come from a one-time currency gain, not thrift. Timing isn’t causation; without controls you’re driving blindfolded.
Rule: never celebrate a “savings” until you’ve run the counterfactual.
🐟 Ignoratio Elenchi: red herring in corporate camouflage
During the Deepwater Horizon leak, BP’s Tony Hayward moaned, “I want my life back,” then had to apologise within 24 hours.(Reuters) Deflection might shift headlines—until people notice the body count.
Fix: answer the question you were asked; everything else is noise.
🔄 Petitio Principii: circular logic meets accounting fraud
Enron’s risk controls were “robust” because “we’ve never been fined.” Three months later US $74 billion in shareholder value turned to smoke.(Investopedia) Self-referencing audits are as helpful as a fire extinguisher full of petrol.
Patch: demand third-party tests, not self-licking ice-cream cones.
🏟️ Argumentum ad Populum: when the crowd becomes a cliff
Almost one-third of companies already deploy generative-AI tools, McKinsey says, prompting panic not to “fall behind.” (McKinsey & Company) Popularity explains hype, not viability.
Counter-measure: pilot, prove ROI, then scale, resist the herd stampede.
🌾 Straw Man: build a scarecrow, burn it for show
Propose a four-day pilot of remote work; a detractor snaps, “So you want a gig-economy free-for-all?” No, just replacing two hours of commute with billable output. Straw-manning nukes psychological safety.
Response: restate the original idea, then debate that.
🪜 Slippery Slope: doom-spiral rarely delivered
Starbucks unionised one café in 2021; pundits forecast a chain-wide labour revolt. By 2025 unions cover roughly 550 of 10 000 US stores, important, yes, apocalypse, no.(Reuters) Change is seldom binary; pilots and guardrails exist for a reason.
Brake: quantify each “step” on the slope; most have landings.
🚪 False Dilemma: pick your poison or starve
“We must cut 20 % of headcount this week or declare bankruptcy.” Conveniently ignores debt renegotiation, asset sales, or revenue plays. Binary framing narrows vision exactly when creativity is vital.
Escape hatch: ask, “What third path are we overlooking, borrow, sell, partner, pivot?”
📊 Case-File Carnage
🛠️ The Anti-Fallacy Toolkit
👹 Devil’s Advocate Rotation
Meetings with a rotating critic boost effectiveness 33 % and decision quality 23 %.(MIT Sloan Management Review)
🩺 The Premortem
Harvard’s classic method spots failure before it happens—and costs nothing but honest imagination.(Harvard Business Review)
🗂️ Counter-Memo
Any spend above US $1 M gets a two-page “why this stinks” brief. If no one can write it, you’re officially flying blind.
🎲 Bias Bingo
Laminate the ten fallacies, drop it on the table, reward the first person who spots one with quality espresso.
🙌 Reward Correction
Applaud the intern who flags a CEO’s straw man. Truth-seeking scales faster than any SaaS.
🚀 Exit Ramp: clear thinking has an ROI
Logical fallacies survive because they flatter egos and save time—until the invoice arrives as fines, lawsuits, or existential crises. Boards that name and shame these Latin ghosts win cleaner debates, faster pivots, and scandals killed in draft, not court. So keep the croissants, upgrade the coffee, and pin this field guide next to the fire extinguisher. Your balance sheet, and history, will thank you.
Got a war story? Drop it in the comments. Best “dumpster-fire defeated” tale wins a free 🎲 Latin Fallacy Bingo PDF.
📚 References
1 Time Magazine, “Tesla Shares Dive After Musk’s ‘Pedo Guy’ Tweet,” 2018.(Time)
2 Wikipedia, “Theranos,” accessed 2025 (funding & board).(Wikipedia)
3 Smithsonian Magazine, “Steven Sasson & the 1975 Digital Camera,” 2015.(Smithsonian Magazine)
4 Innosight, 2021 Corporate Longevity Forecast, 2021.(Innosight)
5 Reuters, “BP CEO Apologizes for ‘Thoughtless’ Comment,” 2010.(Reuters)
6 Reuters, “Volkswagen Says Diesel Scandal Has Cost €31.3 B,” 2020.(Reuters)
7 Investopedia, “Enron Scandal Explained,” 2016 (updated 2024).(Investopedia)
8 CFPB Press Release, “Orders Wells Fargo to Pay $3.7 B,” 2022.(Consumer Financial Protection Bureau)
9 MIT Sloan Management Review, “Why Meetings Need a Constructive Devil’s Advocate,” 2025.(MIT Sloan Management Review)
10 Harvard Business Review, “Performing a Project Premortem,” 2007.(Harvard Business Review)
11 Reuters, “Workers United Represents 10 000 Baristas Across 550 Stores,” 2025.(Reuters)
12 McKinsey & Company, State of AI 2023: Generative AI’s Breakout Year, 2023.(McKinsey & Company)
(Icons courtesy of plain old Unicode. No ancient manuscripts were harmed.)
A dust-buster rife with pith & vinegar; thanks for Friday night delights.
Thanks for this interesting article and for featuring my photo!